Diffusion Theory

     Diffusion of innovation is a theory that seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread. It was a theory formed by Everett Rogers, a professor at the University of New Mexico. In this theory, he used a chart explain the audience of adopters. The chart is shown below. 

        Each of these sections reflects the amount of people in the general public who adopt a new idea or technology. At the very beginning are the innovators who adopt an idea or technology during its "launch" phase. After this, the early adopters, who adopt during the "uptake" phase. Then, the early majority adopts during the "normalization" stage. Next, the late majority adopts during the "maturation" phase. Finally, the laggards adopt it during the "saturation" phase. It is important to note that though the percentages on the graph add up to 100%, 100% of people almost never adopt ideas or technologies. There will always be people who refuse to buy in. For example, only 96.7% of American families owned a TV as of 2011, despite the fact that I have never personally met someone without a TV. 

        One of the most recent technological advancements that can be used to demonstrate the Diffusion of Innovations Theory is the smart phone. Below is a graph of PEW research polls for the percentage of Americans which own both cell phones and smart phones, with the blue line being cellphones and the light green being smartphones. 

     Though the first smartphone was technically made available for purchase in 1994 (which shocked me) PEW did not start doing research into their ownership until about 2011, where an estimated 35% of Americans owned smartphones. This would put them roughly in the middle of the early adopters phase. This means that it took about 17 years for smartphones to grow from their conception to halfway through the early adopters phase. They reached late adopters phase just two years later in 2013 when research suggested that just over 50% of Americans now had smart phones. As of Feb. 8, 2021, 85% of Americans now owned smartphones. This shows the rapid adoption which occurs as a technology reaches the normalization stage. 

      I would say that the Diffusion of Innovation theory is an accurate model, however I am not convinced that it is a good or bad thing. I believe that it is simply just an accurate model for predicting the rate at which an idea is adopted.